The Deterrence Dilemma: Iranian Government Braces for Strike as US Exercises Target Political Leadership

Over the weekend, the US military announced it would carry out massive exercises in the region to “demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower.” This move is a direct message to Tehran: the American “armada” is not just a symbolic presence; it is a ready-to-use tool for regime change. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that shifts the focus from the “shattered” nuclear program to the very survival of the clerical elite.
Senior Iranian military officials have responded by claiming that the buildup of foreign forces makes them “accessible targets.” They have vowed a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response” to any aggression, warning that the entire region will ignite. However, the Iranian government is bracing for a strike knowing that its “Axis of Resistance” is in disarray, with Hezbollah and the Houthis hesitant to engage after the devastating 12-day war in June.
The deterrence that once protected Tehran is rapidly eroding. Israel’s “maximum alert” status and the redeployment of 12 F-15E Strike Eagles from the UK to Jordan signal that the US is building a multi-national coalition for a potential assault. The Iranian government is bracing for an attack that would be both “swift and wide-ranging,” utilizing THAAD and Patriot missile batteries to shield US and Israeli assets from any desperate retaliation.
President Donald Trump’s rhetoric has become increasingly focused on the “removing” of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has reportedly demanded “decisive options” that go beyond the surgical strikes of the past. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that is intended to decapitate the political leadership, clearing the way for a transition of power that reflects the demands of the millions currently in the streets.
Diplomatic channels appear to be dead, with Tehran denying any secret deals with US envoy Steve Witkoff. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned that sending forces “goes against the principles of the international system,” yet their own violation of human rights has left them with few international allies. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will be the final answer to their refusal to negotiate, as the US fleet settles into its final position.