The Diplomatic Domino Theory: Will Saudi Arabia Fall Next?

President Donald Trump’s Mideast strategy appears to be based on a form of diplomatic domino theory. The first domino is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The administration believes that if it can successfully topple this one, it will trigger a cascade, with the final and most important domino being a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The entire sequence begins with the current fragile truce. Trump’s visit is designed to ensure this first piece falls cleanly by overseeing the hostage release and getting all parties to commit to a lasting peace. This initial success is seen as the essential catalyst for everything that follows.
The next domino is building a regional consensus around the new status quo. The summit in Egypt is intended to achieve this, bringing together key Arab states to agree on a plan for Gaza’s reconstruction and future governance. This creates a collaborative atmosphere and demonstrates the benefits of working with the US and, by extension, Israel.
With these pieces in place, the stage is set for the final, crucial domino: Saudi Arabia. The theory is that with the Palestinian issue addressed (at least in Gaza), and with a clear demonstration of regional cooperation, the political barriers for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel will be significantly lowered. The strategic benefits of an alliance against Iran would then tip the scales.
This domino theory is an ambitious and optimistic reading of the region’s complex politics. It faces many obstacles, not least of which is the kingdom’s long-standing position on Palestinian statehood. But it is the clear logic underpinning Trump’s high-stakes diplomatic mission.